Collecting, Identifying, and Valuing First Edition Dr. Seuss Books

First Edition American Picturebook Scarcity

The Precarious Balance: Scarcity and Demand for First Edition Picturebooks

As most experienced book collectors and booksellers know, the scarcity of a book has a major impact on its value in the market. Scarcity in and of itself does not drive value, but instead value results from a combination of scarcity and demand. For books, the supply-versus-demand equation is synonomous with the scarcity-versus-collectibility equation. Scarcity represents the collective supply for the first edition book, while collectibility is the collective demand.

There are two different aspects of scarcity to be considered:

The existence of all first edition copies, inclusive of private & public collections; and
Only consider those first edition copies which are on the market.

While the latter is of the utmost concern to the book collector and the bookseller when pricing a book within the current market, the former must be considered, if only slightly, when making a collectible book purchase with investment concerns. Since most librarians currently do not know how to correctly identify first editions of contemporary American picturebooks, it is problematic to query libraries/institutions using Worldcat to understand the population statistics for such books. Still, keep this in mind as the hobby matures. Eventually, libraries will house first edition collections of Caldecott Medal books, Seuss books, and the like, so querying Worldcat will not be as futile.

Scarcity Index For First Edition American Picturebooks

Scarcity of a first edition book is a function of the number of surviving copies from its first print run, in relation to the total number of copies of the book sold over the course of its publishing lifetime. The former cannot be known with any certainty; therefore the scholarly collector must gather evidence over time to develop a relative approximation. The latter is a proxy for the collectibility of the book, rationalizing that the greater the number of people who have read or been exposed to the book, then the greater the desire for some number of people to own a copy of the first printing.

With that said, the Scarcity Index is an attempt at codifying the scarcity of a first edition American picturebook. It is a 10-to-1 subjective index for the scarcity of the first edition, where ‘10’ is most scarce. This index is not intended to be definitive, and only offered as a starting point to assist the reader in classifying a book’s scarcity based upon their personal experiences and opinions.

There is no central database of all historical transactions for first edition books across the vast number of venues – internet sites; book fairs; brick & mortar stores; auction houses; estate sales; private placements; and so forth. Without a central database one can only guess about a first edition’s scarcity based upon personal experience.

Since 1998, either in pursuit of their acquisition or for upgrading an existing copy, the author has performed informal structured queries for internet offerings of these first edition Beginner Books. A more formal search was performed in March 2024 for this guide, see Appendix 2 Beginner Book Scarcity.

These internet searches were performed for first edition Beginner Books - with dust jackets - offered for sale in Good or better condition. Ex-Library and copies without dust jackets were omitted from the surveys, as were copies with pages missing or with severe defects. Summary information from these surveys is provided for each book in its respective chapter.

Scarcity Rating	Editorial Description For First Edition American Picturebooks
10 Rare to Very Scarce	Insufficient first edition copies on the market, not yet a healthy balance between supply and demand. Very few, if any, standing copies on the market. Prices have not risen sufficiently therefore first edition copies are purchased quickly and copies are not usually on the market – the book’s price equilibrium has not yet been met. New copies surface less frequently than once per year. Demand for first edition copies far exceeds supply, but the supply is too limited to meet demand. With no competing examples, prospective buyers do not have many options on price or condition, and booksellers have pricing leverage.
9 Very Scarce to Scarce	There are two groups of books in this category: Books where documented historical and/or auction prices have escalated such that there is an acceptable supply-demand balance. Books not normally available on the market as prices have not risen sufficiently to surface first edition copies. New copies surface once or twice per year. Demand for first edition copies far exceeds supply, but the price is outside the budget of many collectors. Prospective buyers do not have many options on price or condition, and booksellers have pricing leverage.
8 Scarce	The documented historical and/or auction prices have risen such that there is an acceptable supply-demand balance. A few first edition copies are usually on the market however at a high stabilized price (‘high’ being relative). New copies surface once or twice per year. Demand for first edition copies far exceeds supply, but the price is outside the budget of most collectors. At these prices prospective buyers can be selective about price and condition, since there are few competing buyers. Although still a "seller's market", however, since comparable books are available on the market, the booksellers must be competitive with condition and price.
7 Scarce to Uncommon	The historical prices have escalated such that there is an acceptable supply-demand balance, therefore there are several first edition copies normally on the market. New copies surface 2-to-4 times per year, however demand exceeds supply, therefore more prospective buyers than booksellers. Booksellers still have more market leverage than book buyers. Prospective buyers do have some options on price and condition since there are comparable books on the market, therefore booksellers are price and condition competitive. Nearly a healthy marketplace.
6 Uncommon	The historical prices are stable and there is a healthy supply-demand balance. First edition copies are not common, although there are several standing copies usually on the market. Booksellers are condition sensitive and price competitive. A healthy marketplace, with a good balance between buyers and booksellers: an equilibrium between copies being bought by collectors (and taken off the market) and first editions being brought to the market.
Note: This scarcity rating table is specific to first edition American picturebooks. Readers might apply this or a similar scarcity rating method to other genres. I don't know other genres sufficiently to know whether this method applies, or not, therefore apply delicately, and at your own risk.

The Scarcity ratings I give to books is not based upon the results of a rudimentary book search of the current market place. Rather the Scarcity rating is based upon thirty years of collecting experience:

Looking for books for years in all sorts of nook and crannies in book stores across the country.
Searching through catalog upon catalog from numerous childrens book specialists.
Performing lots and lots of structured daily, weekly, and monthly internet searches.
Searching through auction upon auction of reputable auction house book sales.

The reader should recognize the current era is early in the evolution of the picturebook collecting hobby, so the general public, the general bookseller, and the general book collector do not yet know of the substantial value of first edition American picturebooks. The substantial value is not generally accepted knowledge. This helps to explain the relative dearth of first editions on the market. And this also explains why first edition Dr. Seuss books ARE available in relatively good numbers - general booksellers and general book collectors KNOW they have value, therefore have radar on for "first edition Dr. Seuss" when they are scouting for books.

As the hobby matures and more people become aware, forgotten things in attics will be remembered and found, surfacing first editions to the market. This dynamic will continue for years and years to come. Book collectors will enter the hobby; libraries and institutions will build collections; booksellers will become aware, and first edition picturebooks will be traded. In twenty years, we will have an improved perspective on what is scarce and what is not.

The Relation of Price to Scarcity

The availability of first edition American picturebooks is impacted by price. For many first edition picturebooks the ‘market price’ might not be sufficient for copies to surface to the market.

An example of this is the first edition Make Way For Ducklings, by Robert McCloskey, which won the 1942 Caldecott Medal. Prior to 2008 there were no copies on the market, and they rarely surfaced. A first edition came to market in 2008 and sold for $4,000. The next year a FE came to market and sold for $8,000. At these prices booksellers initiated inquiries and made tangible offers for books held by collectors. Over the next 15 years as the price of the book escalated additional first edition copies have come to market.

Does having these additional first editions on the market make the first edition Make Way For Ducklings any less scarce? No, not really. The first edition is scarce, yet available, at a price.

Another example is the first edition A Snowy Day, by Jack Ezra Keats, which won the 1963 Caldecott Medal. Prior to 2012 there were no copies on the market – none, and I never observed a copy for sale in fourteen years of internet searches. A first edition came to market in 2012 and quickly sold for $3,000. The second copy I know of was offered for $4,500 in 2015. There were two copies on the market from my January 2022 survey, and the one offered at $15,000 is no longer available. And only a single copy was available on the market in February 2024 offered at $35,000 (this copy was also available in the January 2022 survey).

These four first edition copies of A Snowy Day are the only ones I have observed on the market in over thirty years of book collecting (offered at $3,000, $4,500, $15,000, and $35,000). It is possible one of the two higher priced books is one of the two lower priced books being re-offered for sale. Is it peculiar that at an offering price of $35,000 that no other comparable first edition books are coming to market? Or is the book simply that rare?

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© Stan Zielinski. Author of the Children's Picturebook Price Guide
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